This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing WatchItPlayed’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
WatchItPlayed | training | published before 2020 | 275 | 0 |
WatchItPlayed | validation | published 2020 | 45 | 0 |
WatchItPlayed | test | published after 2020 | 66 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
WatchItPlayed | Asmodee | 16.0% | 2.5% | 6.52 |
WatchItPlayed | Stronghold Games | 3.3% | 0.6% | 5.76 |
WatchItPlayed | Fantasy Flight Games | 5.8% | 1.1% | 5.16 |
WatchItPlayed | Solo Solitaire Game | 15.3% | 3.2% | 4.84 |
WatchItPlayed | Pegasus Spiele | 9.8% | 2.1% | 4.61 |
WatchItPlayed | GMT Games | 5.8% | 1.3% | 4.54 |
WatchItPlayed | 3D | 3.6% | 1.4% | 2.54 |
WatchItPlayed | Paper And Pencil | 5.8% | 2.3% | 2.51 |
WatchItPlayed | Combinatorial | 3.6% | 1.6% | 2.25 |
WatchItPlayed | Deduction Game | 11.3% | 5.0% | 2.23 |
WatchItPlayed | Hand Management | 39.3% | 20.0% | 1.97 |
WatchItPlayed | Party Game | 17.8% | 9.2% | 1.93 |
WatchItPlayed | Crowdfunding Kickstarter | 11.3% | 12.6% | 0.89 |
WatchItPlayed | Dice Rolling | 24.4% | 28.4% | 0.86 |
WatchItPlayed | Hexagon Grid | 4.7% | 11.8% | 0.40 |
WatchItPlayed | Pickup And Deliver | 0.4% | 2.7% | 0.13 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.952 | yes |
2 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.859 | no |
3 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.784 | no |
4 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.760 | no |
5 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.718 | yes |
6 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.668 | no |
7 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.649 | no |
8 | 2010 | 70512 | Luna | 0.611 | no |
9 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.606 | no |
10 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.597 | no |
11 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.584 | no |
12 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.576 | yes |
13 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.557 | no |
14 | 2016 | 163154 | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | 0.556 | yes |
15 | 2010 | 65200 | Asteroyds | 0.542 | no |
16 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.537 | no |
17 | 2017 | 197376 | Charterstone | 0.528 | no |
18 | 2019 | 220558 | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea | 0.528 | no |
19 | 2015 | 183394 | Viticulture Essential Edition | 0.512 | no |
20 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.501 | yes |
21 | 2018 | 260428 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | 0.497 | no |
22 | 2015 | 168435 | Between Two Cities | 0.479 | no |
23 | 2019 | 265736 | Tiny Towns | 0.455 | yes |
24 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.442 | no |
25 | 2017 | 193728 | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | 0.439 | yes |
26 | 2009 | 43868 | The Adventurers: The Temple of Chac | 0.438 | no |
27 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.436 | yes |
28 | 2019 | 283863 | The Magnificent | 0.434 | no |
29 | 2006 | 22141 | Cleopatra and the Society of Architects | 0.426 | no |
30 | 2010 | 62219 | Dominant Species | 0.424 | no |
31 | 2019 | 266192 | Wingspan | 0.400 | yes |
32 | 2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.381 | no |
33 | 2014 | 159508 | AquaSphere | 0.380 | yes |
34 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.379 | no |
35 | 2006 | 21882 | Blue Moon City | 0.369 | no |
36 | 2017 | 195539 | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | 0.367 | yes |
37 | 2016 | 160010 | Conan | 0.353 | no |
38 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.352 | yes |
39 | 2012 | 129622 | Love Letter | 0.344 | no |
40 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.337 | yes |
41 | 2019 | 272453 | KeyForge: Age of Ascension | 0.335 | no |
42 | 2014 | 159675 | Fields of Arle | 0.311 | yes |
43 | 2019 | 283864 | Trails of Tucana | 0.307 | no |
44 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.306 | no |
45 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.302 | no |
46 | 2018 | 245654 | Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition | 0.297 | no |
47 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.279 | no |
48 | 2004 | 9220 | Saboteur | 0.272 | no |
49 | 2015 | 161226 | The Builders: Antiquity | 0.269 | no |
50 | 2018 | 209324 | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | 0.268 | no |
51 | 2012 | 117915 | Yedo | 0.268 | no |
52 | 2017 | 226320 | My Little Scythe | 0.263 | no |
53 | 2014 | 154203 | Imperial Settlers | 0.263 | no |
54 | 2014 | 157354 | Five Tribes | 0.262 | no |
55 | 2015 | 181304 | Mysterium | 0.262 | no |
56 | 2016 | 204305 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 0.262 | no |
57 | 2015 | 173090 | The Game | 0.262 | no |
58 | 2014 | 161547 | Timeline: Americana | 0.256 | no |
59 | 2018 | 244049 | Forum Trajanum | 0.254 | no |
60 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.251 | no |
61 | 2016 | 200680 | Agricola (Revised Edition) | 0.251 | no |
62 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.251 | no |
63 | 2005 | 15062 | Shadows over Camelot | 0.250 | no |
64 | 2014 | 152241 | Ultimate Werewolf | 0.246 | no |
65 | 2015 | 172381 | My Village | 0.245 | no |
66 | 2013 | 145189 | Timeline: Music & Cinema | 0.243 | no |
67 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.240 | no |
68 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.231 | no |
69 | 2018 | 222509 | Lords of Hellas | 0.230 | no |
70 | 1993 | 1234 | Once Upon a Time: The Storytelling Card Game | 0.230 | no |
71 | 2007 | 31260 | Agricola | 0.229 | no |
72 | 2014 | 163412 | Patchwork | 0.227 | yes |
73 | 2017 | 220775 | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | 0.227 | no |
74 | 2005 | 18723 | Aye, Dark Overlord! The Red Box | 0.226 | no |
75 | 2008 | 37380 | Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age | 0.223 | yes |
76 | 2013 | 172971 | Crossing | 0.222 | no |
77 | 2017 | 199904 | Pericles: The Peloponnesian Wars | 0.221 | no |
78 | 2009 | 39683 | At the Gates of Loyang | 0.221 | no |
79 | 2019 | 220588 | Gandhi: The Decolonization of British India, 1917 – 1947 | 0.220 | yes |
80 | 2014 | 153938 | Camel Up | 0.219 | no |
81 | 2016 | 193738 | Great Western Trail | 0.219 | no |
82 | 2013 | 144553 | The Builders: Middle Ages | 0.219 | no |
83 | 2011 | 69552 | Panic Station | 0.217 | no |
84 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.213 | yes |
85 | 2013 | 144344 | Rococo | 0.213 | no |
86 | 2012 | 119391 | Il Vecchio | 0.212 | no |
87 | 2019 | 283849 | The Only Word: the Party Word Game | 0.212 | no |
88 | 2016 | 194655 | Santorini | 0.211 | no |
89 | 2006 | 25417 | BattleLore | 0.209 | no |
90 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.206 | no |
91 | 2015 | 173156 | Timeline Challenge | 0.206 | no |
92 | 2019 | 295564 | Unmatched Game System | 0.205 | no |
93 | 2011 | 92415 | Skull | 0.205 | yes |
94 | 2016 | 193037 | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | 0.205 | no |
95 | 2010 | 71721 | Space Hulk: Death Angel – The Card Game | 0.202 | no |
96 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.201 | no |
97 | 2018 | 245934 | Carpe Diem | 0.199 | no |
98 | 2018 | 233080 | Book of Dragons | 0.198 | no |
99 | 2017 | 200847 | Secrets | 0.198 | no |
100 | 2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.198 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.84 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.68 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think WatchItPlayed is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.859 | no |
2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.784 | no |
2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.760 | no |
2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.668 | no |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.649 | no |
What games does the model think WatchItPlayed is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2013 | 139747 | Arena Rex | 0.003 | yes |
1960 | 148203 | Dutch Blitz | 0.003 | yes |
2003 | 12171 | Le Passe-Trappe | 0.003 | yes |
2009 | 54625 | Space Hulk (Third Edition) | 0.004 | yes |
2016 | 214343 | Fantastic Gymnastics | 0.004 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Android: Netrunner | Glass Road | Splendor | Viticulture Essential Edition | Scythe | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Rising Sun | Tapestry |
2 | Space Cadets | Timeline: Music & Cinema | AquaSphere | Between Two Cities | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | Gloomhaven | Everdell | Era: Medieval Age |
3 | Love Letter | Crossing | Fields of Arle | 504 | Star Wars: Rebellion | Charterstone | Newton | Aftermath |
4 | Yedo | The Builders: Middle Ages | Imperial Settlers | The Builders: Antiquity | Terraforming Mars | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea |
5 | Il Vecchio | Rococo | Five Tribes | Mysterium | Hit Z Road | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition | Tiny Towns |
6 | Andean Abyss | Room 25 | Timeline: Americana | The Game | Conan | My Little Scythe | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | The Magnificent |
7 | Libertalia | Cappuccino | Ultimate Werewolf | My Village | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Spirit Island | Forum Trajanum | Wingspan |
8 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | BANG! The Dice Game | Patchwork | Blood Rage | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | Lords of Hellas | KeyForge: Age of Ascension |
9 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | The Hunters: German U-Boats at War, 1939-43 | Camel Up | Timeline Challenge | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Pericles: The Peloponnesian Wars | Carpe Diem | Trails of Tucana |
10 | Zombicide | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | Colt Express | Watson & Holmes | Great Western Trail | Secrets | Book of Dragons | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
11 | Timeline | City of Remnants | Three Kingdoms Redux | Mombasa | Santorini | Gaia Project | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
12 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | A Distant Plain | La Granja | T.I.M.E Stories | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Pandemic: Rising Tide | Neon Gods | Last Bastion |
13 | Terra Mystica | Impulse | Onirim (Second Edition) | Baseball Highlights: 2045 | Bloodborne: The Card Game | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Shadows: Amsterdam | Gandhi: The Decolonization of British India, 1917 – 1947 |
14 | I'm the Boss!: The Card Game | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Timeline: American History | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Inis | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | Root | The Only Word: the Party Word Game |
15 | Mice and Mystics | 1862: Railway Mania in the Eastern Counties | Timeline: Sports et Loisirs | Pirates of the 7 Seas | Legendary Inventors | Time of Crisis: The Roman Empire in Turmoil, 235-284 AD | Fireball Island: The Curse of Vul-Kar | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
16 | Mafia: Vendetta | Cuba Libre | Fire in the Lake | Cardline: Animals 2 | Citadels | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Concordia Venus | Unmatched Game System |
17 | Kemet | BioShock Infinite: The Siege of Columbia | Pandemic: The Cure | Sylvion | Aeon's End | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | Maracaibo |
18 | Timeline: General Interest | Navajo Wars | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age | One Night Ultimate Werewolf: Daybreak | Jórvík | Colonial Twilight: The French-Algerian War, 1954-62 | Hitler's Reich: WW2 in Europe | Herbaceous Sprouts |
19 | Coup | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Sheriff of Nottingham | Salem 1692 | A Feast for Odin | Sagrada | Timeline: Science Museum | Subtext |
20 | 1989: Dawn of Freedom | Francis Drake | Kill Shakespeare | Raptor | Raise Your Goblets | Smash Up: What Were We Thinking? | Timeline: Classic | Amul |
21 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Ladies & Gentlemen | King of New York | Porta Nigra | Timeline: British History | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
22 | Seasons | Viticulture | Gaïa | Coffee Roaster | Liberty or Death: The American Insurrection | Indian Summer | Werewords Deluxe Edition | Batman: Gotham City Chronicles |
23 | Dixit Jinx | Concordia | Cubist | The Voyages of Marco Polo | The Castles of Burgundy: The Card Game | Magic Maze | Ultimate Werewolf Legacy | Machi Koro Legacy |
24 | Dixit: Journey | Amerigo | Deception: Murder in Hong Kong | Specter Ops | Codenames: Pictures | 878 Vikings: Invasions of England | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | Blitzkrieg!: World War Two in 20 Minutes |
25 | The Last Banquet | Caverna: The Cave Farmers | Abyss | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Junk Art | Photosynthesis | The Grizzled: Armistice Edition | Paranormal Detectives |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
WatchItPlayed | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.730 |
WatchItPlayed | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.625 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 312804 | Pendulum | 0.428 | no |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.389 | yes |
2020 | 304420 | Bonfire | 0.370 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.353 | yes |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.348 | no |
2020 | 253506 | Versailles 1919 | 0.314 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.312 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.208 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.201 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.186 | no |
2020 | 296626 | Sonora | 0.183 | no |
2020 | 189664 | The Hunted: Twilight of the U-Boats, 1943-45 | 0.169 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.168 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.162 | yes |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.162 | yes |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.139 | yes |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.136 | no |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.131 | yes |
2020 | 255456 | Beneath the Med: Regia Marina at Sea 1940-1943 | 0.129 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.127 | no |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.120 | no |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.118 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.118 | no |
2020 | 298371 | Wild Space | 0.118 | no |
2020 | 301767 | Mysterium Park | 0.115 | yes |
2020 | 274841 | Cóatl | 0.112 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.109 | no |
2020 | 319966 | The King Is Dead: Second Edition | 0.107 | yes |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.107 | no |
2020 | 229782 | Roland Wright: The Dice Game | 0.105 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.105 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.100 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.099 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.098 | no |
2020 | 303672 | Trek 12: Himalaya | 0.097 | no |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.096 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.096 | yes |
2020 | 252153 | Tang Garden | 0.094 | no |
2020 | 281075 | Welcome to New Las Vegas | 0.093 | no |
2020 | 296512 | The Game: Quick & Easy | 0.092 | no |
2020 | 242520 | All Bridges Burning: Red Revolt and White Guard in Finland, 1917-1918 | 0.089 | yes |
2020 | 303669 | Magic Rabbit | 0.088 | no |
2020 | 297030 | Tekhenu: Obelisk of the Sun | 0.087 | no |
2020 | 257001 | Munchkin Dungeon | 0.087 | no |
2020 | 300877 | New York Zoo | 0.084 | no |
2020 | 318084 | Furnace | 0.084 | yes |
2020 | 298638 | Sheriff of Nottingham: 2nd Edition | 0.083 | no |
2020 | 315631 | Santorini: New York | 0.082 | no |
2020 | 318553 | Rajas of the Ganges: The Dice Charmers | 0.082 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.081 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.632 | no |
2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.528 | no |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.474 | no |
2021 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.376 | yes |
2021 | 342073 | Berried Treasure | 0.373 | no |
2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.311 | no |
2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.308 | no |
2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.307 | no |
2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.300 | no |
2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.293 | no |
2021 | 305682 | Rolling Realms | 0.288 | yes |
2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.278 | yes |
2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.275 | no |
2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.270 | yes |
2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.270 | yes |
2022 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.270 | no |
2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.260 | yes |
2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.244 | no |
2022 | 356033 | Libertalia: Winds of Galecrest | 0.241 | yes |
2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.225 | no |
2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.219 | no |
2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.219 | no |
2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.217 | no |
2022 | 284778 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – Dr. Sattler vs. T. Rex | 0.211 | yes |
2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.167 | no |
2021 | 262941 | Dominant Species: Marine | 0.160 | yes |
2021 | 296577 | Red Flag Over Paris | 0.156 | yes |
2023 | 312959 | Rallyman: DIRT | 0.152 | no |
2021 | 308989 | Bristol 1350 | 0.150 | no |
2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.149 | no |
2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.149 | no |
2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.144 | no |
2022 | 347703 | First Rat | 0.143 | no |
2021 | 332944 | Sobek: 2 Players | 0.132 | no |
2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.131 | no |
2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.131 | no |
2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.129 | yes |
2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.127 | no |
2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.127 | no |
2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.127 | no |
2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.123 | no |
2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.122 | no |
2021 | 339790 | Cocktail | 0.120 | no |
2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.120 | no |
2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.119 | no |
2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.113 | no |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.111 | yes |
2021 | 333553 | For the King (and Me) | 0.109 | no |
2021 | 281248 | Cape May | 0.106 | no |
2021 | 344258 | That Time You Killed Me | 0.104 | no |
2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.102 | no |
2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.102 | no |
2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.099 | no |
2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.099 | no |
2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.099 | no |
2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.098 | no |
2022 | 304051 | Creature Comforts | 0.098 | no |
2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.098 | no |
2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.096 | no |
2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.096 | no |
2021 | 320446 | Corduba 27 a.C. | 0.095 | no |
2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.095 | no |
2021 | 283242 | The Whatnot Cabinet | 0.093 | no |
2021 | 320960 | Roll In One | 0.093 | no |
2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.093 | no |
2021 | 307862 | Dollars to Donuts | 0.092 | no |
2021 | 340677 | Bad Company | 0.091 | no |
2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.090 | yes |
2021 | 319899 | Decktective: Nightmare in the Mirror | 0.090 | no |
2022 | 295374 | Long Shot: The Dice Game | 0.090 | no |
2021 | 251747 | Atlantic Chase | 0.089 | no |
2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.087 | no |
2022 | 338460 | The Isle of Cats: Explore & Draw | 0.087 | no |
2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.086 | no |
2021 | 348461 | Castle Break | 0.084 | no |
2021 | 259066 | Commands & Colors: Samurai Battles | 0.084 | no |
2021 | 318184 | Imperium: Classics | 0.083 | no |
2021 | 339484 | Savannah Park | 0.079 | yes |
2021 | 318322 | Hidden Strike: American Revolution | 0.078 | no |
2022 | 320718 | Hidden Leaders | 0.078 | no |
2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.077 | yes |
2021 | 334782 | Bayou Bash | 0.076 | no |
2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.075 | no |
2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.075 | no |
2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.075 | no |
2021 | 259394 | Storm Above the Reich | 0.074 | no |
2022 | 334065 | Verdant | 0.074 | no |
2021 | 298069 | Cubitos | 0.074 | no |
2021 | 263222 | Shards of the Jaguar | 0.074 | no |
2022 | 346199 | A Game of Thrones: B'Twixt | 0.074 | yes |
2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.073 | no |
2021 | 311920 | Ultimate Werewolf: Extreme | 0.073 | no |
2022 | 342444 | Black Rose Wars: Rebirth | 0.073 | no |
2022 | 332070 | ONUS! Traianus | 0.073 | no |
2022 | 344268 | The Mother Road: Route 66 | 0.070 | no |
2022 | 354254 | Voices In My Head | 0.070 | no |
2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.070 | no |
2021 | 333539 | The Siege of Runedar | 0.069 | no |
2021 | 316786 | Tabannusi: Builders of Ur | 0.069 | no |
2021 | 335541 | We Care: a Grizzled Game | 0.069 | no |